FOMC Statement Releases: Reading the Retest

FOMC days punish traders who treat the first spike like an NFP open. Statement language shifts expectations gradually; the initial move can reverse when the press conference tone diverges from the written text.

Mark three zones: the pre-release range, the spike high or low, and the fifty-percent pullback of that spike. The retest — when it comes — often stalls at the midpoint rather than the extreme. Students in our workshop practice this on historical FOMC days using only printed charts, pausing the replay at the thirty-minute mark to predict where price will hesitate.

Accuracy is not the goal. Consistent observation is. When your prediction fails, write one sentence about what you missed. Over a year those sentences become your personal reference manual.